Strategists have predicted market volatility ahead of the November election, especially as Democrats continue to struggle with President Joe Biden’s nomination. But rare precedents exist for events like the one in Pennsylvania.
Forty years ago, the stock market crashed and closed early when Ronald Reagan was shot. Data shows that the following day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 index rose by more than 1%, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell 9 basis points to 13.13%.
Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research Inc. in California, said bond investors should be particularly concerned that the attack could increase Trump’s chances of winning the election.
“I genuinely believe that at some point, the bond market will realize that Trump has a higher chance of winning the White House than any of his opponents, and I still think that as his chances of election increase, the likelihood of turmoil in the bond market will also increase.”
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